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Handicapper Blog

Posted by Rachel Ryan on Friday, April 18, 2014 3:09 PM

 

The Road to the WHHC Finals 

The Final Installment by Rusty Nash

  

Several weeks ago we discussed putting a preliminary plan together for the Saturday’s WHHC final.  Without rehashing that entire article my initial review of the card for Saturday April 19th was quite interesting.   

  

Starting with the expected C-2 finale it appears very likely that the winner will come from one of the first three ML favorites.  While one looks slightly better than the other two, combined they should win that race a large majority of times raced.  So strategy number one is to have completed all 10 of my races prior to the 13th get away race.  The odds strongly favor the top of the leader board to withstand a $100 win ticket on a big outsider.  Of course anything is possible but the objective is to use probability to our best advantage. 

  

Next up are the three mandatory races.   

  

In the Buffalo race, race #6, an Open, I have a non-favorite that I think has a heck of a shot.  I will monitor the odds and make a minimum win wager on my selection.  Should the rest of the Meadowlands money hit the pool and generate a larger overlay for me I may press my action near the start.   

  

The Pompano race, the 4th, is also listed as an Open.  The ML favorite is 2-1 and his last win was a $4,000 claimer.  I am not a fan of his chances.  I realize many of the wintering horses are already back up north but this looks to be a very difficult race to figure.  There are a couple of horses that I am interested in following up on. 

  

Where both Pompano and Buffalo are concerned I will reach out to a few friends who know those circuits a little better than I do. 

  

If you are not in the WHHC you have an opportunity wager into a pool that will be flooded with WHHC money far beyond what would normally be present.  If you have an opinion in one of those races you could find yourself with an excellent value opportunity.  Or the nice play you have been waiting for could be pounded well below an acceptable wagering level.   

  

The Meadowlands mandatory race is the 7th.  Of the four lower ML prices I was able to eliminate only #9 Sing For Me George.  He does his best work when he can brush to the front.  I do not believe in this spot that is a realistic possibility.  I believe that winner will most likely come from #3 Andrew Luck, #6 Blatantly Best or #7 Valentino. 

  

That leaves 12 other Meadowlands races where I need to come up with 7 other plays.  In the first five races I have two very viable long shots and one middle priced horse that I believe will do quite well.  While I do expect other players in the WHHC to land on them, we should still get a square price on them.  If after the 5th race you do not see me on the leader board, then it will likely be a very long night! 

*     *     * 

I am planning to live tweet both Friday night from the Meadowlands.  It will be a bit of practice for the live event but I will be sharing my thoughts on the first ten or so races. 

  

You can find me on Twitter at:  Rusty Nash@Rusty_Nash. 

  

I will also be making a few “Rescue Plays” for my two selected charities.  They are the Standardbred Retirement Foundation and New Vocations.  Information for both can be found at the bottom of this article. 

  

I will tweet my Friday night cash plays and all winnings will go into my personal donation pool for the charities.  I would urge each of you to consider a direct pledge or play along with us the twitter feed with your own “Rescue Play.”  The whole purpose of this charity promotion is to make more of the wagering public aware of the good works being done by these two, and all the other rescue and retirement groups across America and Canada. 

*     *     * 

On Saturday evening during the WHHC I will again be tweeting some thoughts on the majority of the races.  I will also let you know if I am playing that race and the size of my WHHC wager prior to the race.  When the gate reaches the fair start line, I will tweet the actual horse I have selected.  The Meadowlands will be re-tweeting many of my posts on their twitter feed. 

  

Regardless of what happens on Saturday evening this should be a fun event for all of us involved.  The charities themselves will also get to be part of the action via their Twitter account.  

  

I have been asked about posting to FaceBook.  If I am able to I will try to post there as well but Twitter will be my primary communication method. 

*     *     * 

In my third blog earlier this week I mentioned I would follow up on the horses we were tracking from the 4th through 12th.  In race sequence order, here are the ones that will be performing on the WHHC card: 

  

PierceA very good closing effort but had to come from to far back. 

Final Thought: Should be a good player in a competitive opening race.  Will be facing Wicked Business. 

  

Wicked BusinessGood closing effort. 

Final Thought: Should be a very strong player in a competitive opening race.  Will be facing Pierce. 

  

Alexa’s JackpotForced three wide and still picked up good ground late.   

Follow up:  Was a solid second to legit chalk in Wake Up Peter.  Would need substantial draw advantage over that one for serious consideration. 

Final Thought: Appears in the 6th race with an outside post.  In against the very tough Captive Audience, Wake Up Peter, and fellow listed Dew N Doughnuts. 

  

Dew N DoughnutsForced three wide and still picked up good ground late.  Put in a big effort at a big price, 27-1.   

Follow up:  Had the finals been last week I would have been all over this one.  We will lose some of our value but this may be one of the nuggets we have been looking for. 

Final Thought:   Looks to be up against it with the likes of Alexa;s Jackpot, Captive Audience, and Wake Up Peter.  He really needs a more aggressive drive. 

  

You Bet Your GlassCaught on the brush and crush attempt.  Should be super tight for next mile. 

Final Thought: Ended up in the 8th race.  He should be competitive as the 3-1 ML favorite.  I will use him in some of my personal play but not sure the race fits my WHHC plans. 

  

Spender HanoverMay have tired a bit too much to play back, but let’s see where he lands.   

Follow up:  Did not race back. 

Final Thought: Landed in the 12th race.  Zeron chose off and that leaves him up against it. 

  

OK FameWas just caught on the brush and crush, sharp.   

Follow up:  Just sat at the back with a very passive drive.  Perhaps a top catch driver would make this guy good play. 

Final Thought: Is in the finale and is the legitimate favorite.  He is a big part of my overall strategy. 

  

*     *     * 

Here are the two wonderful Standardbred organizations I will be playing for.  They each have donation pages on their web site. 

  

Standardbred Retirement Foundation  

  

The website is : www.Adoptahorse.org
Facebook: Standardbred Retirement Foundation - Adoptahorse.org
Twitter: adoptahorse_srf @ srf2245
 

  

New Vocations Racehorse Adoption Program 

  

The website is :  www.NewVocations.org  

Facebook: New Vocations Racehorse Adoption Program 

Twitter handle is New Vocations@New Vocations 

  

Tim Tetrick, Jason Bartlett, Ronnie Wrenn, Aaron Merriman, and Trace Tetrick all wear the New Vocations patch on their colors. 

 



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